It’s Variance, Idiot!!

25 OCT 05

The epiphany came to me yesterday as I was trying to think why I’ve been so successful at online poker, but so horrible in the casino. Sure, it could be because the online players are donks and the casino players are all better than me, but it had to be more than that. As I’ve said before, if you delude yourself about your skills you will lose money. That being said, I’d like to think I’m fairly intelligent and an above average poker player.

So what gives?

What gives is variance. Much thanks is owed to several bloggers and poker authors for trying to pound this idea into my head. Leave it to Excel to drive it home. Here is the epiphany: I have been buying into limit games with too little to allow for aggressive play PLUS variance.

Let me explain.



Figure 1. Here is me. I buy into a 4/8 table with $100, or about 12 x the BB. With my aggressive style of play, as soon as I get to the inevitable downswing and hit -12 BB, I’m done. I don't allow myself to rebuy, so I walk away down for the session (and pissed off to boot).


Figure 2. Here is where I should be – buying in with at least 30 x the BB. This way, if and when I swing below 12 x the BB, I’m giving myself a chance to swing back.

The key to this strategy is two fold:
- Walk away when you reach a set limit.
- Never lose more than 30 x BB in one session.

Another factor is the change of style once I get close to the – 8 BB point. I become less aggressive, or I go on tilt, and both are HUGE –EV.

I’ll let you know how it goes when I get back from Vegas.

Final thought: This only applies to limit. I’ll be trying some no-limit ring action and a few tournaments, but that’s for another blog.

Blogger Tourney Bust Out

24 OCT 05

902nd.

At least I outlasted Dr. Pauly.

Quick recap:

I’m in EP with A 10 off (no diamonds) and raise to 3x BB. I get one caller. The flop comes three diamonds. I check and the caller bets small. I put him on a hand but fearful of the diamonds. I push and he calls with AcJd. That’s right. No pair, and only the J of diamonds. No more diamonds come, so he beats me with J-high. He didn’t really have me outchipped. Maybe it was a good read…

BS. He made a bad call and got lucky. I noticed that he did not finish in the money.

So there.

Down a little for the weekend, but Vegas is right around the corner. If Pauly is still there, I’m buying him a beer or three just to say thanks for all the free entertainment.

You should be listening to: http://www.jonathancoulton.com/music/thingaweek/BabyGotBack.mp3

What On Earth…?

21 OCT 05

What on Earth did you like about that flop?

I can’t believe how many times I said that yesterday. Gotta love the Muckleshoot, where if you dream it, your card will come.

I hate having made hands trumped by gut shots, especially when the pot odds clearly did not warrant idiots staying in. Lost with KK, QQ and AQ like that. Of course, I had my one suck out when I caught a third 8 to my pockets and busted a guy with AA. I limped in middle position. There was one caller and he raised. I called, and so did MP.

The flop was 7 6 2 rainbow. I had an overpair so I bet it. MP calls and AA guy raises. I call and so does MP. There are now 10 big bets in the pot. The turn is a 5, giving me the open ender and the over pair. I check and so does MP. AA bets and we both call. I think I’m beat, but I have 10 outs (two 8’s, four 4’s and four 9’s).

River was an 8.

I bet, and as MP is calling, the button guy shouts, “you sonofabitch,” because he knows his rockets got busted. With the way the table was going, he should have expected it. Besides, he was one of the morons that sucked out on me two hands earlier.

Small consolation as I still ended up down for the night. I was happy with my play – more aggressive, but I still screwed up one hand by playing too tightly.

I’m dealt KK in middle position and the LAG to my right raises. I reraise and (holy crap), I isolate him. That almost never happens at the Muck. Anyway, the flop comes undercards. He bets and I raise. He calls. The turn is another undercard. He bets again.

Now, I’m thinking, AA? Trips? I just called. That was my mistake. I should either raise or fold that hand. At this point, he looks at me and says, “what, no raise?”

Jerk.

River is an Ace. He bets, I call, and he beats me with A Q.

Final thought: T minus 5 days to Vegas.

You should be reading:
www.Banterist.com
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=8335653541
www.Sixtysecond.com

Instant Karma

19 OCT 05

First, my tournament update (‘cause I know you love these updates):

You finished the tournament in 3rd place. A $54.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.
You finished the tournament in 1st place. A $108.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.
You finished the tournament in 4th place. A $27.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.
You finished the tournament in 3rd place. A $54.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.
You finished the tournament in 3rd place. A $54.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.
You finished the tournament in 3rd place. A $54.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.
You finished the tournament in 3rd place. A $54.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.
You finished the tournament in 4th place. A $27.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

I also tried three 5 table tourneys (and cashed in all three):
Buy-In: $11.00/$1.00 - 45 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/07 - 23:47:36 (ET)
Dear DrChako, You finished the tournament in 6th place. A $29.70 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

Buy-In: $11.00/$1.00 - 45 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/11 - 19:45:08 (ET)
Dear DrChako, You finished the tournament in 5th place. A $44.55 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

Buy-In: $11.00/$1.00 - 45 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/13 - 17:23:39 (ET)
Dear DrChako, You finished the tournament in 1st place. A $153.46 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

And this one I especially liked, because I outlasted a huge field and only got beat on a bad suckout:

Buy-In: $10.00/$1.00 - 1345 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/13 - 21:35:00 (ET)
Dear DrChako, You finished the tournament in 34th place. A $47.07 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

Skills are still intact, despite a couple of bad beats the other day. As an aside, how can I win $704.98, and still go on tilt when I lose $35? Talk amongst yourselves…

On to karma.

So last night, I’m leaving the hospital at 8 pm, when I encounter Jo. Jo is breathing quite heavily while leaning against a car in the hospital parking lot.

Me: “Can I help you?”

Jo: “I can’t find my car! My husband is bleeding from his rectum and I’ve been walking around this parking lot for the last two hours and I can’t find my car and I want to go home and I don’t think I can go on much longer, and…”

Me: “BREATHE!!”

Jo: Silence. Rapid, but quiet breathing.

Me (extending my hand): “My name is Dr. Chako.”

Jo: “God bless you. I’m Jo.”

Me: “Take my arm, and I’ll get you to security. I won’t leave until I’m sure you get where you need to go.”

There is much crying interspersed with lots of thanks as we make our way to the ER and find security. Dr. Chako saves the day.

Fast forward to later that evening and a $25 two-table SNG:

You finished the tournament in 2nd place. A $135.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

Coincidence? I think not. Maybe if I drove her home myself, I’d have gotten first.

Karma baby.

Final thought: We make a living by what we get, we make a life by what we give. - Sir Winston Churchill

I’m Back

18 OCT 05

I knew you missed me.

I was off furthering my career and having a heck of a time to boot. Here is a hint of what I did on my summer vacation:

Online poker treated me well while away, but after last night I’m probably even (KK vs. AA, K-high flush vs. A-high flush – that kind of thing).

More trip report perhaps tomorrow.

Final thought: Thanks Scott. Driving it was fun, and I WILL own that car. Oh yes, I will. (I’m starting to sound like Plankton from Sponge Bob. That crabby patty will be MINE!)

Two Peas – Different Pods

6 OCT 05

I’m short-stacked but in-the-money in the latest $15 + 1, two-table SNG, when I get the following hand:

Seat 5: cdf1983 (13775 in chips)
Seat 7: EvilStepDad (8895 in chips)
Seat 8: DrChako (4330 in chips)

Dealt to DrChako [Ad Kd]
EvilStepDad: folds
DrChako: raises 1200 to 2400
cdf1983: raises 11300 to 13700 and is all-in
DrChako: calls 1855 and is all-in

*** FLOP *** [Ac As Kh] Wow!
cdf1983 said, "nh"
*** TURN *** [Ac As Kh] [Ah] Double Wow!!
DrChako said, "holy crap!"
DrChako: shows [Ad Kd] (four of a kind, Aces)
cdf1983: shows [3c Qc] (three of a kind, Aces)
cdf1983 said, "daaaaammmmmmmmmmm"

It’s nice for the variance to come my way for a change. Unfortunately, the yin-yang in the universe decided to seek revenge on my wife. While I was catching miracle cards, I watched her Aces full of 4’s get beat by Aces full of Jacks, her flopped set get beat by a straight when a Queen came on the river (to a moron holding nothing but AK), her pocket Jacks on a flop of 4, 4, 5 get destroyed by a guy holding pocket 5’s, and at least one other 2nd best full-house. It got to the point where I was calling out the bad beats before the cards were turned over.

Flop K 8 6. Turn Ace. River 6. “Oh, he’s clearly gonna flip over Ace-6."

Bam. Ace-6.

It’s probably my fault.

You should be reading: The Blonde. Look for HNT, or in today’s case LNT. Trust me.

Final thought: History will be kind to me for I intend to write it. - Sir Winston Churchill

Kicker Problems

5 OCT 05

Coffee-housing is talking to your opponent in order to:

- Get information
- Create confusion

So, I’m playing heads up with my wife (okay, we’re poker geeks - got it). The specifics of the hand are a bit fuzzy now, but I had something like A 9 off-suit. The board comes A 10 2 rainbow, and she bets.

Now, you have to know my wife. She is not an aggressive player. It’s fair to say that when she’s betting, she has something. She has a couple of tells, and one of them said that she got a piece of that flop.

But, so did I.

Sometimes I can get information just by looking, but I decided to try a little coffee-housing. She’s looking at her chips (tell) and I say, “I got an Ace. You got an Ace?” She pauses ever so briefly (tell) before the tiniest smirk (tell) comes, and she says, “yup.”

I believe her.

“What’s your kicker?” I ask deviously. “You’ll have to bet to find out,” comes her smooth reply (TELL!!)

I go all-in (moron). She calls.

She had the Ace. Her kicker – another Ace.

Thank God we were playing for honor only.

Final thought: I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him. - Mark Twain

Oh, the Wit

4 OCT 05

So, I’m walking arm in arm with my wife, when she say, “your arm hair is really soft.”

My quick-witted reply?

“That’s not the only thing that’s soft, baby.”

Okay. Maybe I need to work on that one.

Online Universities

Flush!

3 OCT 05

First off, welcome to my new readers. Many of you got an email from me today, so I appreciate you stopping by. Feel free to leave comments from time to time. Just realize that anyone can read your comments, so don’t be too vulgar.

If you track back to some of my recent postings, you’ll see that I suffered a horrible string a bad beats (it couldn’t be bad play, right?), and I decimated most of my bankroll. I was filled with self-doubt. Why didn’t I just stick with golf?!

But lately, my internet play has surged (as I knew it would), and my bankroll is flush again. Here is a taste:

No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $15.00/$1.00 - 18 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/01 - 18:54:39 (ET)
You finished the tournament in 4th place. A $27.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $12.00/$1.00 - 18 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/01 - 19:48:13 (ET)
You finished the tournament in 2nd place. A $64.80 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $15.00/$1.00 - 18 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/02 - 01:06:49 (ET)
You finished the tournament in 3rd place. A $54.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $15.00/$1.00 - 18 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/02 - 11:34:34 (ET)
You finished the tournament in 3rd place. A $54.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $15.00/$1.00 - 18 players
Tournament started - 2005/10/02 - 19:14:58 (ET)
You finished the tournament in 1st place. A $108.00 award has been credited to your Real Money account.

And finally, I played in a free qualifier tournament...

No Limit Hold'emSuper Satellite
Tournament started - 2005/10/02 - 12:00:00 (ET)
You finished the tournament in 1st place.You qualified to play in Tournament #12671146 and are automatically registered for it. If you choose to unregister from this tournament your account will be credited with $215.00 Tournament dollars. Tournament dollars can be used to buy into any tournament.

I decided to play the big one. There were 3000 players, about 90% of them paying $215 to play. The rest qualified like I did. Unfortunately, I got knocked out in 845th place. At least I outlasted 2/3 of the field. Too bad. First place was over $100,000.

Still, it feels good to be back.

You should be reading: This (It’s a link to my very first blog. After you click the link, scroll to the bottom.)

Final thought: Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society. - Mark Twain