21 JUN 06
First day of summer. Longest day of the year. Time to reflect – on a hand, of course.
So, I took my next big step and sat into a very loose 30/60 game. I got up about $1000 early when I turned a set on two separate hands, only to bleed in back to a couple calling stations.
I would like help on the following hand. I’m on the button with Ks Qs. Five (!) limpers get around to me.
Question #1: Do you call, raise or fold?
I called. Six of us see a flop of:
4h 6d 8s
The blinds check and an MP player bets and gets called twice before it gets to me.
Question #2: Call, raise or fold?
I called with over cards. The turn is the Ace of spades, giving me the nut flush draw. It’s checked around to the original bettor, who bets. The two other MP players fold.
Questions #3: Call or raise? Obviously, folding with the nut flush draw is not an option here.
I raised. It gets 3-bet by the small blind. MP calls.
Question #4: Re-raise or call? This question was heavily debated at the table after the hand.
River is a blank. It’s checked to me.
Questions #5: Bet or check. This was even more heavily debated.
Bonus question: What won? If you get this right, I’ll have a special prize for you if I see you at the WPBT event at Caesar’s on July 8th.
5 comments:
PF: Raise with 5 players in before you, there will be a sizable pot, your raise won't get anybody out, but it will create the overlay you need to continue if you flop a draw, which you are pretty intent on doing. You would expect to flop a flush or straight draw somewhere around 1 in 5 times (YMMV).
F: You think that you want to call with overcards, but I would speculate that half of your overcards are dead in one of the other five players hands. Mr. Leader-outter has A8 or A6 or AT+, Mr. Caller has something like KQ-K6, QJ-Q6. You're hand is too sensitive to the straight draws, I fold here.
T: You raise thinking, "Time to semibluff." Hmm, I probably wouldn't. You're probably crushed by A8 or a flopped set of sixes. Raising to thin the field is important when you are ahead, when you are behind, keep people in for the same number of dollars, because they are prospective callers on the river.
T2: You did semibluff, and SB thinks he's either got a monster, or now has a kickass draw, maybe two baby spades with a OESD. I fold, but that again is not an option, I call and pray. This may be a little conservative, but three way on the turn is dicey. Somebody has something.
R: You are on the end with the best possible bluffing hand. The checks to you are dicey, no one wants to value-bet their made two pair or set, or unlikely straight (even for a loose game, I would have to have visual evidence that someone would play 57s, before I believe it). If you bluff, whose going to fold to you? T8, 98, 96, maybe. You're really down to the decisions, "Would the SB bluff 3-bet on the turn like that," and "Will Mr. Leader-Outter fire all of those bullets on a bluff?" The answer to one of those questions is, "No."
I check and muck to something like A8.
1) raise, you have a pretty decent hand and you want a pot
2)call, too much money in the pot to fold, esp if you don't think someone's in with 57 or 2 pair, but since you didn't RAISE, they're probably in anyway.
3)Raise; see if you can hide your flush draw and take this away on the river
4) I probably call because you've got two people to act after you and MP called 2 bets cold and didn't reraise. bizarre.
5) WHO CHECKS ON THE RIVER AFTER THREE BETTING? WTF??? Now it depends on what you think they have, if you think they have two pair or a set, they're not going to fold, if you think they missed their flush straight draw, I bet.
I can't actually tell you what i'd do because it would be on the feel of the table. Do you think anyone is going to fold to your bet? do you think you might have the best hand? Bet. but with two people in you're gonna get called with a pair.
I'm going to say the SAUUUUUUUUUUUCE (57) won. :) I'm totally wrong because I think your KQs probably actually took the pot down against 79s and .. well no, i'm gonna say 67s won with a pair of sixes. :)
and yes, see you at Caesars!
Phenomenal guesses.
I'll post my analysis and the answer to the bonus question at 3 pm Pacific Time.
ANSWERS! ANSWERS! ANSWERS!
I'm with Maigrey, the turn and river are bizarre. When I said, "Best possible bluffing hand," I meant, "Best hand that might be construed as a bluff." It really is more of just a terrible hand. A better bluffing hand would be something like 23 or 25.
Why would you raise from the button with 5 people behind???
You're just making the odds correct for all of them to chase any god given draw they may have/get after the flop.
Unless you have big fold equity here, I don't see a raise being optimum.
In NL I might advocate a raise large enough to shoo-away some limpers, but limit I don't follow the logic if you're playing against savvy enough players.
Post a Comment