Playing 3/5 NL last night. The table was unusually tight with a lot of limping preflop but insta-folding to any flop or turn bets, something I was using to my full advantage. The one thing that stood out to me was that there was little regard for bet sizes, especially on the turn and river (i.e. draws were constantly being priced in, raises would be more than half their remaining stack, etc).
The player to my right was even tighter then average. I'd only seen him pre-flop raise once, but didn't see the hand because there was no showdown.
I'm on the button with 6-7. Two early position limpers and cutoff guy on my right raises to $20. I call assuming that both limpers will call, and they do.
The flop is Ad-7s-6d. It checks around to me. I'm pretty happy with my bottom 2PR, but I don't like the straight and flush possibilities. I bet $75 into this $88 pot.
MPs both fold over to captain tight-pants in the cutoff, who min-raises me to $150. He has $350 behind and I have him well covered.
What do you do?
9 comments:
I expect that you beat his range here, since he will show up with AK a lot more than AA or A7 or A6. I put in a raise, happy to play for his stack.
-PL
I'd pat myself on the back for a good fold, and he might show AK.
I echo MHG's comment. It's always tough to put someone on exactly AA, but you have some evidence indicating that this is what he has here. Tighty McTighterson with a raise pre-flop and a check-min-raise.
I go get a poker for dummies book, because I didn't understand a word you just wrote...
Putting him on exactly pocket Aces here is I think too weak play. AK is definitely more likely than exactly AA in my view given the Ace on the flop.
This is still a tough spot because I'm taking you at your word that this guy is super tight, such that he likely isn't min-raising the flop without an Ace in his hand. So he likely has either AA or AK. Accounting for some chance that this range of AA or AK only is not correct, I'd say his chances of AA are about 25%, AK 50% and something else 25%. I would hate to fold my big chance to double up just because of a 25% chance of pocket Aces.
I understand fully the comments above saying he probably has aces so it's a fold, but I'm just not sure enough based on the action you've described so far. I'm not dying to get it allin either, but I'd call $75 more and re-evaluate on the turn. If one of your two 6s or two 7s falls, you can get it in. If another Ace or King falls, you can fold and save $350. For $75 more I call and reevaluate after another card hits the board.
Good question, interesting situation that we've all faced at some point I assume.
I had somewhat the same sitch last night: ep raise from tighty, couple of limpers pricing me in with 33, hit my 3 on an A23r board, I raise, he min raises....
I got it in with him expecting to see AA, but hoping for AK or AQ. He had AK of course... oh well... but I think more often than not I'm ahead there. At 25NL, everyone is more than happy to stick 100BB in with AKo.
Very unlikely He has 2 pr there if he's that tight.
As for Hoy's comment... I doubt waiting for a 6 or 7 is gonna help you - you might as well fold if that was your plan and save yourself 75 bucks or get it in now. If he has AA you're beat by trips, then a bigger full house when he hits aces full of 7's or 6's so it's no win for you from the beginning. Your hope is that he is either on a flush draw, in which case get it in now, or big ace, in which case get it in now. Hopefully you have a read on him that he min bets flush draws :)
Having said all that... I would probably fold bottom 2 without a good read on him - lol.
As tight as you describe him I wouldn't expect A7/A6. AK-AQ are possible, and of course AA, the only real threat. But this is a wierd line. 2nd to last to act and opts for a check raise. With a set he could've been trying to slow play, but this is a terrible board for that. Some players over slow play, but it sounds like it's hard to get a line on him as you say he hadn't played much.
How well do you think he was playing to your image? You said you were taking advantage of a lot of people giving up the flop and turn, which implies you were doing a fair share of stealing. Do you think he noticed that? He could've been targeting you as an aggressive player for a check raise, which he could be doing as light as AQ.
Either way, it sounds like you had a good thing going, getting away with a lot of stealing. Do you really want to play a big pot here with the tightest player, or would you rather just let it go? Sometimes I think situations like this don't come down to a pure equity question. It's not my hand vs his range, but more of this opportunity vs the others you've been getting for the session. I think I would let it go and stick with the cheap and easy pots until I was the one with the set, particularly agains this player.
Snap-muck.
You're leading into him and he still min-raise after raising pre-flop against the tightest guy at the table?
AA.
Unless your playing the aggressive donkey at the table and have shown down 93o for two pair or trips recently, then I could see AK.
But most likely he's got a set at least.
I think my answer deserves it's own post.
-DrC
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