Six Sigmas Out

27 FEB 06

The Tiltboys have a great post about standard deviation (AKA Sigma) and one of their Vegas trips. I think some or all of their posts have been converted to a book, which is legit. Sometimes I read bloggers and think, gee – I can’t believe I can read this great writing for free. Sometimes, I even say “gosh – golly,” or “wowsers.”

So, I was thinking about my own experience with standard deviation. Long time readers will remember my post about flopping three full houses, only to have all three beaten by quads by the same guy. No – this didn’t happen online. It was at my old standby, the Muckleshoot (bad beat jackpot now stands just under $300,000).

Last night, I had another experience with standard deviation, this time to the other side. In the span of one hour, I was dealt AK 8 times, 6 of them suited. I also had AQ and AJ. My final hand at that table was AA. The whole table was cracking up, because I kept raising or reraising. The funny thing was that no one believed me. I did not slow play. I announced, “Yes folks, it happened again. Raise!” Yet still they came. I won 80% of those hands, often going to a showdown. When I got the AA, I said, “Folks, this time it’s not AK.” I showed the kid sitting next to me, and he about freaked out. Got one caller to the river (he had K4 and hit the king on the flop).

Overall, I won $800 this weekend, but that includes a second place in a $40 buy-in home game tournament. I got to heads up as the chip leader, but Jay caught a crazy run of cards (including three consecutive hands with pocket pairs), and busted me. At one point, he laid down KK face up to my all in. The board was J 9 8 6 with three clubs. I had J 10 with one club. It was a great lay down. We rabbit hunted – he would have won, but I think I make the same lay down on that scary board.

One funny hand. I had the early chip lead. With 33, I raised and was reraised. The flop was 3 5 6. I underbet the pot. Ron raises to where he is almost pot committed. I go all-in and he quickly calls. He flips over KK. The guy to my left says, “I folded a King.”

Turn blank.

River King.

Still, I had plenty of chips, but the one-out suckout really affected me. I was still steaming 5 hands later, but I was smart enough to fold all marginal hands while I was still pissed.

I may have said this before, but I think I’m back. Even if I’m not, it sure feels good when the cards are coming my way, followed closely by the money.