Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Flawed Logic

3 JAN 07

"Hi. My name is Dr. Chako, and I’m an Omatard."

"Hi, Dr. Chako!"

So, I’m playing heads up HOE against an absolute rock. It’s a strange game heads up, but it beats the tedium of all Hold ‘em all the time.

We are in the Omaha 8 round, and I have AQxx. Since it's heads up, and since my opponent is a rock, raising is usually pointless. I’m on the button, so I just call. We see a flop of:

A Q 10 rainbow.

She checks, I bet and she calls. So far, I have little information, but this is pretty typical for this opponent. Did I mention she is a rock? She also never folds pre-flop to a raise, and since no hand is greater that 60% to win, I see little point.

Turn is a blank, but it puts two spades on the board. Now the rock bets. I raise. She re-raises.

Danger, Wil Robinson!

I articulate my thought process outloud. There are only 4 hands that make sense. Perhaps less.

K J
AQ
A 10
Set

My first question. I had no possible flush, but there is a chance (turns out, a good one) that she does. How much credit should I give after a rainbow flop?

#2. Since I tie AQ and beat A 10, and I’m behind on the others, do I call here? There are 7 big bets in the pot. If I’m drawing to only 4 outs, the answer is no.

Gear change. The holidays were unkind to my waistline, but I got up at 4:40 this morning and hit the bike. I did have one lapse and ate an incredible Seattle’s Finest cookie. It sure does help that the president and CEO hand delivered them to my door (thanks Hunter).

Weight: 182 (five pound MORE than my last report)

7 comments:

Drizztdj said...

Raise on a non-pairing turn card by a rock? She/he either has the straight and/or a flush draw to the nuts.

You say "blank" for a turn card, was it a low card? The only semi-blank card here is a 9.

Everything else can change the hand. And yes, I love Omaha questions :)

Anonymous said...

Drizz has an excellent point here . . . the "straight and/or a flush draw to the nuts" is very perceptive for a man who wasn't there . . . he must play some good Omatard.

DrChako said...

I totally agree, and was really hoping that Drizz would respond. I'm wasn't sure how cards below a 9 would affect the play, but I guess it opens up low possibilities. See, I told you I was a 'tard.

The Ace on the river brought some serious pissed off looks from "The Rock," AKA, Mrs. Chako.

The wife said...

As it should have, Mr. 4-outer. Odds of you winning on the flop (when I had the nuts?) - 19%. Odds of you winning on the turn (when I STILL had the nuts and the second nut flush draw AND the straight flush draw AND was betting and raising like the maniac I'm not?) - 10% . . . you didn't even have a straight draw or flush draw at that point.

I guess the old axiom is true . . . even a blind squirrel (who can't calculate the odds of finding a nut in a country where nuts are nearly extinct) finds a nut every now and then.

And you wonder where your bankroll went . . . :)

DrChako said...

Okay - it was all fun and games until that last comment. See you on the felt, missy...

Drizztdj said...

I've played a little Omaha in my spare time ;)

Flopped straights in Omaha (even broadway) should always be played with caution on the flop.

Otherwise you're setting up odds for someone to chase and hit.

The wife said...

Again, the wisdom of Drizz. He must be a master of Omatard. Flopped straights SHOULD always be played with caution on the flop; hence my careful call of the good Dr.'s bet. However, on the turn, where I now STILL have the nuts, plus a flush draw AND a straight flush draw, AND there is NO low draw, AND I can only LOSE to the boat (10% chance) and at worst possibly tie if the river gives him a straight possibility (which at this point, although I don't know this for sure, he doesn't have), I'm betting and raising with both fists.

Apparently only the good Dr., the lucky bastard, didn't realize how far behind he was by my obvious betting. I still love him, but his suck out factor is HUGE.