Tuesday, August 30, 2005

More Bad Beats (that I’m NOT talking about)

30 AUG 05

Ok. Explain this to me. How long can a bad run of cards sustain itself?

When I’m talking about a bad run, I’m not talking about going card-dead. I’m talking about flopping a solid hand, only to have it beat. Statistically, this is a good thing. It means I’m going in with the best hand, and they have to hold up a certain percentage of the time, right? Then, it’s just a matter of maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses.

Got it. Thanks.

So what do you do when you flop three full houses, only to have them beaten BY THE SAME GUY.

With Quads. All three times.

Within 45 minutes.

I’m reminded of the movie The World According to Garp. Robin Williams (playing Garp) is about to buy a house when a airplane crashes into it while he is standing in the yard. As the pilot is walking out of the wreckage, Garp says to the real estate agent, “we’ll take it.” What?! He replies that the house is now airplane proof. What are the odds of it ever getting hit by another airplane?

That’s how I’m approaching this. What are the odds that three of my full houses will get beat by quads ever again in my lifetime, let alone in the same night?

I think I can beat those odds. Like the gate guard said to me this morning as I arrived with my top down, “Ooh. An optimist?”

Yup. That’s me. Perhaps is delusion…

You should be reading: Drudge

Final thought: Reputation is what other people know about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. - Lois McMaster Bujold, "A Civil Campaign", 1999

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