Thursday, June 22, 2006

Analysis

22 JUN 06

First off, sorry I didn’t get around to posting this yesterday. Patient care got in the way. Secondly, great job! I did not play the hand very well, as you guessed.

Anon and Maigrey: Pre-flop – if I raise here, I eventually take down this pot. By calling, I become another sheep hoping for cards. On the flop, you are correct again. My overcards are probably dead if they hit (poignantly put in CAPS by Maigrey that if I raised pre-flop, I wouldn’t have this cool hand to analyze). On the turn, Maigrey and I both think the raise was correct, but I can’t argue with Anon’s logic. It turns out that if I capped the turn, I would have won the pot. Quick question for Anon – did you really mean that you would fold to the 3-bet with the nut-flush draw?

Finally, checking on the river was the only choice. The SB (the 3-bettor) is a very good player and would have made a crying (but correct) call on the river.

Anon was closest to the guess, but alas, no bounty this time. I’ll try to think up another challenge prior to the WPBT.

6s 4s took the $870 pot with two pair and a baby flush draw. Dammit, where was that river spade???

Baaaah!!!!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Meh. I didn't pay very good attention to that part of the action. I call one more bet on the turn, but I hate myself for putting myself in that situation. Your hand was VERY sensitive to the non-negligible possibility of dead spades.

I worked up a spreadsheet one time telling me the probability of a certain number of a suit being dealt to a full table one time, then figuring out the posterior probabilities given that I was dealt two of that suit. It's not huge, but it costs.

You make that turn bet (and I don't know how you play, so I might be completely wrong) and I think that you floated with Ax-overcards on the flop. I'm guessing that you would have gone ballistic on the flop if you hit top pair, trying to protect an otherwise weak hand. I put you on AQ-A8, and I am ahead of that range, with what I, as the villain, think is a nice redraw.
Capping the turn would have taken some seriously advanced thinking. You would have had to have seen his small two pair and known about him that he could lay it down, for a single bet from you (maybe with another caller) on the river for a pot that would have been in the vicinity of 12-15 big bets.


Do you think that it would have really been a crying call? If he said he would have folded, he probably lied. There are too many ways that you could be playing fast on the turn. Plus, he checkraised a bettor and a raiser, he's got to have some confidence in his hand. How many times does a situation like this come up at that table? I'd have had to look you up, just to see.

Maigrey said...

damn you, i had the pair plus the flush draw (and gutterballer) that should be good enough! so I didnt have twoooo paaaair. :)

DrChako said...

I feel a Princess Bride quote coming on:

Anon - Who are you?

I'm afraid the reply would be the same as Wesley (AKA the Dread Pirate Roberts) - "No one of consequence."

Great analysis and response. I was truly hating myself for even being there, and was begging for a spade on the river - not a situation you want to be in on your first attempt at 30/60.

In the commentary after the hand, the SB (the winner with the 6s 4s) said he was "sure" he was beat, but I agree that he was lying when he said he would have laid it down.

As far as how often it comes up - fairly regularly at 10/20, but since this was my first experience at 30/60, I don't know. I guess I wasn't surprise because I'm so used to the lower limits.

And Maigrey, I'll think of a consolation prize for you when I see you in Vegas. Anything medical you need me to check out?

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