Sunday, October 25, 2009

Level 3 Thinking

Here's another interesting hand from my 3/5 NL game tonight.

It's my last hand of the night. I'm comfortably up (a nice change). UTG, I limp with A-3 off-suit. 5 callers is typical for this game and it doesn't disappoint. BB checks and we see a flop:


Sweet. I check my trips. It checks all the way around to the BB who bets $20. I call. Everyone else folds.

Turn: Qh

First off, let me tell you about BB. He's a better than average player. I watched him extract maximum value on a previous hand against another decent player. He's tight and aggressive. (Edit: He checks here) I bet $30 into this pot of $70. BB now check-raises to $90. We each have about $600 behind. What do you do? Before you answer, what do you put him on?

I elect to call. Before you call me out, I know this is a bad move. At this point, it's push or fold.

River: 6s

Now the board is paired and there is a spade flush out there. I check.

BB now bets $250. What do you do?


F-Train said...

I'm a little confused by the action. Where is he in relation to you? Is he on the button or in the blinds? It looks like he's on the button but you refer to him as the BB so I'm not sure...

If it's a limped pot, and he's the button and is the type of player you say, we can most likely rule out KQ/KK/QQ since he would have raised those preflop. What else might he have here?

Most Likely Hands:
A3, K3s, Q3s, 53, 43, 32

Less Likely Hands:
medium pair

That's about it right? What else would he bet the flop and raise the turn with? Therefore we can assume that you're ahead of the vast majority of his range on the turn.

The spade's a bad river because half of his range is now beating you. The only likely hand you beat is a small three.

I know I'm tight-weak, but given the image you assign to this player this looks like a fold. If he has a smaller three, well, he outplayed you. It's your fault for donking the turn, making it look like you had KQ, and then not shoving on him when he raised.

Also, honored by your tagline. I think.

DrChako said...

Not the first time my hand history was confusing. I have edited the post. He check-raised.


Daddy said...

Assuming you don't have the Ace of spades, I'd put him on ATs in spades, and his turn play was a crafty semi-bluff reading you for a marginal king at best, or a middling wired pair.

I'd fold on his river bet.

Unknown said...

I can't find a call nor a shove.

I put him on K3s or Q3s here and you're beat but the call on the turn (as you mentioned) put you in this spot and bravo to the villian for noticing it.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I would call, and hope you didn't just let him hit the flush. The math tells me that his turn check-raise seems far more likely to indicate two pairs or another 3 than a flush draw. With all those possible hands he would make this move with and that you are ahead of, it just doesn't make sense to me to fold in this spot.

Hope he had T3 or some shizz.

F-Train said...

Oh, if he's really the BB then that changes things considerably because now any 3 is in his range and it also brings KQ back into play. Though it's an unusual line for him to bet the flop, get called, and then check a non-scary card on the turn before check-raising.

I can't see him check-raising a draw out of position. You probably have to call on the river (but don't be surprised to see K3 or Q3).

Shrike said...

I would call, echoing a lot of what Hoy says, chiefly for two reasons:

1) because he can be bluffing with a lot of hands that you beat (all sorts of Kx and medium pocket pairs, and worse unpaired threes), given your evaluation of this player.

2) you have underrepresented your hand, which consequently has given a good and aggressive player reason to belief he can win by applying pressure against you.

3) Just fold A3off UTG from now on. Thanks!


John G. Hartness said...

icky. Get out of there.

DrChako said...

Excellent analysis by all.

I played this hand so badly, I almost didn't want to post it. Introspection makes us better, right?

First of all, let me reiterate how bad my call was on the check-raise. I am beating almost everything here except a disguised monster. As Lee Jones tell us, don't be afraid of the monster under the bed.

Drizz alludes to the heart of the matter. What did the BB notice? Here is where level 3 thinking comes in. Of his possible holdings, the one that makes the most sense is KQ. He puts me on AK and his $250 river bet is designed to get AK to call.

There is an outside chance he was bluffing on a flush draw and got there on the river, but his large bet when the flush gets there on the river argues against that. This bet is designed to get a baby flush to fold and AK to call.

Once again, I did the absolute wrong thing and folded. It's wrong for 2 reasons:
1. I can beat more than 1/2 of his possible holdings, and,
2. I could have pushed!

A push here could reverse it and get his baby flush to fold, especially on a paired board. If he has the FH, then good for him. Still, I argue that the FH is unusual, unless he puts me on the nut flush on the river.

In the end, that's what I decided. His big bet said, "I know you made the flush. Now you are going to pay."

He flashed KQ.


F-Train said...

As I said above, spades are unlikely. It's a very strange line for him to bet a spade draw on the flop and then check-raise that draw out of position on the turn when a non-threatening Q hits.

That means a push on the river is wrong -- because either he has KQ or a small 3 and isn't calling, or he has a full house and is snap-calling.

Just call. But not because you "hope" you're good, as Hoy suggested. Making calls based on "hope" is a leak. Do it because you beat most of his likely range but aren't getting a raise called unless he's at the top of that range and has you crushed.

SirFWALGMan said...

Dude I read this and there are two keys here to me. A) You respect this guy and he knows how to get value from a hand -- let's call him a ballah. B) He raises on the turn and then he makes a pretty big bet (pot right?) on the river on the scare card.. I think you beat most of his holdings and he is trying to "scare" you like the ballah he is. This was my initial opinion before reading any comments. Float - Scare - Win.

I think your fold was kinda weak.. and your right, if your gonna call the turn then your a chucklehead for folding the river. Get it in on the turn and stop all the draws or make him gamble if he has a draw with bad out.

Having said you suck btw -- obviously in a real game, live, with things going down.. and you thinking about the wrong things like preserving your win perhaps.. obviously it is easier to read your explanation afterwards and call you names. However you did ask for it.

Anytime you want lessons on breaking even I am more than willing to help.

SirFWALGMan said...

BTW - I think my analysis is way better than Hoy's and I would stack Hoy all week. :P.

Unknown said...

Rough hand, but I'd say it was worth the information for what you put in.

盛豐 said...