Friday, April 03, 2009

Seat 7 Laid Down Queens?!

In the aftermath of the ugliness, I've been asked about the hand where Seat 7 folded Queens face-up. Here are the particulars:

  • Seat 5 was UTG and raised pre-flop to $20 with As-Ks. Seat 6 called. Seat 7 (with the Queens) also called.
  • Before all was said and done, SEVEN people called the $20, putting $140 into the pot.
  • The flop was 4s-6s-10c
  • Seat 5 checks the overcards and nut-flush draw.
  • Seat 6 bets out $50.
  • Seat 7 raises to $125. He has about $300 behind
  • If folds around to seat 5 who goes all in (he has about $1000 behind)
Here is my analysis. Seat 5 is representing a set. He doesn't have air. He has no idea of the strength of seat 7s hand because you'd expect a large overpair to have re-raised pre-flop.

In the end, seat 7 would have had to put $300 more into the pot in order to win $740. If seat 5 has a set, seat 7 is way behind. With As-Ks, seat 5 has 15 outs twice.

Do you fold queens there?


Shrike said...

I probably call because of the dead money in the pot, but I expect to lose more than half the time. This is (arguably) acceptable because of the price we are being laid (I'm too lazy to run the math).


DrewFours said...

Interesting 'typo'...

"The price of being _l_aid"

Somethin' on your mind Shrike?

OhCaptain said...

I agree with PL, you get your money in here but really need to expect to lose a fair bit of the time. 15 outs twice isn't drawing dead.

For me, the history of seat 5's play is critical to narrowing down the hands. If I think he comes in for a raise with medium to small pocket pairs from UTG, I'd be worried, but if the player has a history of being agressive on draws out of position, I'll need to remember that too.