Friday, April 03, 2009

Seat 7 Laid Down Queens?!

In the aftermath of the ugliness, I've been asked about the hand where Seat 7 folded Queens face-up. Here are the particulars:

  • Seat 5 was UTG and raised pre-flop to $20 with As-Ks. Seat 6 called. Seat 7 (with the Queens) also called.
  • Before all was said and done, SEVEN people called the $20, putting $140 into the pot.
  • The flop was 4s-6s-10c
  • Seat 5 checks the overcards and nut-flush draw.
  • Seat 6 bets out $50.
  • Seat 7 raises to $125. He has about $300 behind
  • If folds around to seat 5 who goes all in (he has about $1000 behind)
Here is my analysis. Seat 5 is representing a set. He doesn't have air. He has no idea of the strength of seat 7s hand because you'd expect a large overpair to have re-raised pre-flop.

In the end, seat 7 would have had to put $300 more into the pot in order to win $740. If seat 5 has a set, seat 7 is way behind. With As-Ks, seat 5 has 15 outs twice.

Do you fold queens there?

3 comments:

Shrike said...

I probably call because of the dead money in the pot, but I expect to lose more than half the time. This is (arguably) acceptable because of the price we are being laid (I'm too lazy to run the math).

-PL

DrewFours said...

Interesting 'typo'...

"The price of being _l_aid"

Somethin' on your mind Shrike?

OhCaptain said...

I agree with PL, you get your money in here but really need to expect to lose a fair bit of the time. 15 outs twice isn't drawing dead.

For me, the history of seat 5's play is critical to narrowing down the hands. If I think he comes in for a raise with medium to small pocket pairs from UTG, I'd be worried, but if the player has a history of being agressive on draws out of position, I'll need to remember that too.